Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the "No" side offering a striking 329% implied yield versus 60.5% for "Yes," suggesting the market heavily discounts a gas price spike above $6.20 by year-end 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the "No" side offering a striking 329% implied yield versus 60.5% for "Yes," suggesting the market heavily discounts a gas price spike above $6.20 by year-end 2026. The 48¢ price has declined sharply from 76¢ seven days ago (a 37% drop), indicating recent bearish sentiment on high gas prices, though the minimal $0 in 24-hour volume and just $267 open interest raise liquidity concerns for meaningful position entry. With 259 days to expiry and a 10¢ spread, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the extreme yield differential may reflect illiquidity pricing rather than fundamental conviction about California's gas outlook.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.20 yes 100