Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $320 open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 165.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $320 open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 165.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The dramatic 7-day price surge from 6¢ to 46¢ suggests recent conviction shift toward higher gas prices, though the wide 10¢ spread and minimal trading activity indicate thin order books that could mask true market sentiment. With 259 days to expiration and California's current gas prices well below $6.60, the 6% probability appears to reflect genuine skepticism about such a sharp increase, but the low liquidity means any meaningful position could significantly move the price.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.60 yes 100