Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.30 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.30 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 77% probability that average gas prices exceed $4.30 by year-end 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—47% for Yes versus 423% for No—suggest the No position is severely underpriced relative to its risk, indicating potential mispricing or strong consensus bias toward higher prices.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 77% probability that average gas prices exceed $4.30 by year-end 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—47% for Yes versus 423% for No—suggest the No position is severely underpriced relative to its risk, indicating potential mispricing or strong consensus bias toward higher prices. The 7-day price decline from 82¢ to 75¢ combined with thin 24-hour volume of just $41.25 and a 10¢ spread raises liquidity concerns, making this market vulnerable to sharp reversals on modest trading activity. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the 212% risk-adjusted yield warrants caution about whether the current pricing reflects genuine probability or illiquidity-driven distortion.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $4.30 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.30 yes 100