Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the "No" side offering 867% implied yield versus 23% for "Yes," suggesting the 60¢ price may be artificially depressed due to illiquidity—the $148 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the "No" side offering 867% implied yield versus 23% for "Yes," suggesting the 60¢ price may be artificially depressed due to illiquidity—the $148 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity. The sharp 7-day rally from 72¢ to 86¢ contradicts the current 60¢ price, signaling potential data staleness or a recent correction that hasn't fully settled. With 259 days to expiry and a 10¢ spread, this market lacks the depth to reliably price a gas forecast nearly two years out, making the extreme "No" yield more a liquidity premium than a genuine probability signal.
Also on polymarket at 16¢(Δ +60¢)
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-4.20 yes 100