Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 39% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.20
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Above $6.00
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$76
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.40
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.40
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.20
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-6.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.60
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.60
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.60
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 93% probability that U.S. average gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, based on aggregated predictions across 20 contracts. The high probability reflects expectations that global oil supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, or seasonal demand will keep fuel prices elevated through the final months of the year. The market assigns much lower odds to extreme scenarios—only 31% chance prices exceed $7.60, and just 6% probability they fall below $2.00. Resolution depends primarily on crude oil prices, refinery utilization rates, and whether major supply disruptions occur before December 31. Current sentiment suggests markets expect prices to remain in a $4.40–$4.50 range rather than spike significantly higher or crash lower. Economic growth rates and Federal Reserve policy will influence demand indirectly through their effect on overall fuel consumption.
- ›Current U.S. average gasoline prices as of May 2026 serve as the baseline; any sustained movement below $4.40 would require a supply glut or demand collapse
- ›West Texas Intermediate crude oil price momentum is the primary driver; each $10/barrel move typically shifts retail prices by roughly $0.25–$0.35 per gallon
- ›Refinery maintenance schedules and unplanned outages between May and December 2026 directly affect supply and price volatility
- ›Seasonal demand patterns peak in summer (June–August) then decline in fall; lower-volatility winter demand in Q4 could pull prices downward
- ›No current market assigns >66% probability to prices above $6.80, indicating traders view extreme price spikes as low-probability events
What moved the line
- Jun 19Above $4.40↑19pp12→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above $4.60↓19pp20→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above $4.40↓18pp36→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above $4.60↑16pp4→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above $4.40↓10pp18→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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