Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 51% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.20
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Above $4.80
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
130 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.20
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.80
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.40
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.60
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.40
KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.40
Analysis
This contract reflects the likelihood that average US gasoline prices will exceed $4.20 per gallon by year-end 2026. Currently assigned 32% probability, this level sits below historical norms and reflects expectations of stable or declining fuel costs over the next five months. Energy prices are primarily driven by crude oil supply dynamics, with factors including geopolitical tensions affecting production, OPEC+ decisions on output levels, and US refinery capacity. Seasonal patterns matter significantly—summer driving demand typically peaks in June-July before declining into fall, which historically puts downward pressure on prices through year-end. The contract structure itself suggests low probability of extreme price scenarios ($4.60+), with those outcomes trading at 3-6 cents. Resolution hinges on crude oil market movements and any supply shocks between now and December, which remain difficult to predict with precision.
- ›Crude oil futures trading patterns and OPEC+ production policy through Q4 2026, which directly transmit to pump prices
- ›Seasonal demand cycle effects—fuel consumption typically declines post-summer, creating natural price headwinds into year-end
- ›Current spot prices relative to the $4.20 threshold and recent trend direction (rising vs. stable vs. falling)
- ›Refinery maintenance schedules and capacity constraints in H2 2026, which influence supply available to markets
- ›Geopolitical risks to production (Middle East tensions, sanctions regimes) that could create supply-side shocks
What moved the line
- Aug 22Above $4.40↓39pp47→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above $4.20↑22pp25→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above $4.40↑12pp35→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above $4.20↓11pp47→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above $4.20↑11pp36→47¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Where are oil prices heading?last 99% · 0d
- Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 3, 2026 be above 314Mlast 95% · 4d
- Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026last 14% · 53d
- Will Samson Clinical Operations's male Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) drug (Sublingual Minoxidil) report No Results Phase 3 results in SAM-002last 92% · 53d
- What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gweilast 47% · 65d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in oil.
In oil
Related reading
Oil prices slip 1.19% despite high geopolitical tension
USO dropped to $118.27, reflecting near-term supply fears easing. Prediction markets show only 24% chance of WTI hitting $115 by year-end. Traders should watch KXWTIMAX for potential energy sector volatility.
Oil Prices Surge 4%+; WTI Prediction Markets See Heavy Volume
USO Oil ETF jumped 4.28% and WTI prediction markets show significant volume shifts, with multiple contracts repricing higher. Key contracts to watch: KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120 (22¢, vol 6668) and KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T55 (11¢, vol 3394).
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.