Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is essentially a coin flip at 50¢ with balanced 141% annualized yields on both sides, but the extremely thin liquidity ($539 open interest, $9.69 daily volume) and wide 10¢ spread create significant execution risk for any meaningful position.
Analysis
This market is essentially a coin flip at 50¢ with balanced 141% annualized yields on both sides, but the extremely thin liquidity ($539 open interest, $9.69 daily volume) and wide 10¢ spread create significant execution risk for any meaningful position. The 472% realized volatility and sharp 35% price movement over seven days suggest this contract is highly sensitive to energy news and macroeconomic shifts, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.3/h) indicate limited near-term catalysts driving the current equilibrium. With 259 days to expiry, the market appears fairly priced but illiquid enough that large orders could face substantial slippage.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-4.60 yes 100