Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing a 67% probability that U.S.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 67% probability that U.S. average gas prices will exceed $4.00 by end-2026, with the Yes contract yielding 76% annualized—notably lower than the No side's 262% yield, suggesting significant asymmetric risk perception. Volume is thin at $73.8 in 24 hours against $1.9k open interest, and the contract has rallied sharply from 45¢ to 67¢ over seven days, indicating recent bullish sentiment on higher gas prices despite the 259-day timeframe. The extreme No-side yield and neutral regime score suggest traders may be overpricing the downside scenario, creating potential value on the lower-probability outcome.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.00 yes 100