Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 45% probability of gas exceeding $4.20 by end-2026, implying traders expect prices to remain below this threshold despite current elevated levels.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 45% probability of gas exceeding $4.20 by end-2026, implying traders expect prices to remain below this threshold despite current elevated levels. The 146.9% annualized yield on the Yes side and extremely thin $4 daily volume suggest this is a low-liquidity niche contract with significant pricing uncertainty, evidenced by the 10¢ spread and recent 8¢ price swing over seven days. With 259 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, the market appears fairly balanced but lacks sufficient depth to confidently signal directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.20 yes 100