Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026?
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15 · closes May 15, 2026 · 30 days remaining
Price
Last
72¢
Bid
71¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$6,195.07
Open Interest
$41,273.37
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on Will Trump visit China by...?: May 15 · match confidence 0.62 · close-time delta 1094h
Counterpart price
—
This price
72¢
Spread (this − cp)
—
Counterpart IY
—
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 499.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2992.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.01 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 426% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.70 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2951% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
243 indicator snapshots · 40 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
—¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 5:23:01 PM
About this market
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15 yes 100