Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2028. The market prices AGI announcement at 59¢ with a 39% annualized yield on the Yes side, reflecting meaningful uncertainty over a nearly 900-day timeframe, though the $0 daily volume and $377 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on modest order flow.
Analysis
The market prices AGI announcement at 59¢ with a 39% annualized yield on the Yes side, reflecting meaningful uncertainty over a nearly 900-day timeframe, though the $0 daily volume and $377 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on modest order flow. The 9¢ spread and balanced implied yields (39% vs 42.3%) indicate relatively efficient pricing despite low activity, with the neutral regime and minimal 7-day movement (49¢ to 51¢) suggesting no recent catalyst has shifted consensus on AGI timeline probability. The low cliff risk index and extended expiry window make this primarily a fundamental bet on whether technical breakthroughs will occur rather than a liquidity or expiration-driven trade.
Resolution rules
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAGICO-COMP-28Q3 yes 100