Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2031. This AGI market is pricing in a two-thirds probability of an announcement within roughly 4.7 years, though the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $1,726 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity and limited conviction behind the 66¢ price.
Analysis
This AGI market is pricing in a two-thirds probability of an announcement within roughly 4.7 years, though the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $1,726 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity and limited conviction behind the 66¢ price. The asymmetric implied yields—14.1% for Yes versus 31.8% for No—indicate the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, with the No side offering significantly better risk-adjusted returns despite the lower probability, suggesting skepticism about near-term AGI announcements despite the headline price.
Resolution rules
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXAGICO-COMP-30 yes 100