What is the current probability for "AI regulation by 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 2, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "AI regulation by 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 609.3% and 33.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "AI regulation by 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

AI regulation by 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that AI regulation by 2027?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and modest $13k open interest, suggesting the 20¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 19/26¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $13,061.31·Closes Jan 2, 2027·255d remaining

KXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01

7-day price362 snapshots · 6 regime

22¢19¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 21

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and modest $13k open interest, suggesting the 20¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 642% implied yield on Yes positions combined with 915% realized volatility and a 4.04 vol ratio indicates severe mispricing or speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction about AI regulation odds. With 259 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 2.1 events per hour, the market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing on regulatory news, though the neutral regime score suggests no imminent catalyst is currently priced in.

Resolution rules

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 609.3%

IY (No) 33.5%

Adj IY 609%

CRI 4

RV 1282%

VR 5.44

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	609.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	609%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1282%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.44	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:41 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →