Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has surged 45% over seven days to 32¢, suggesting recent positive developments in AI model performance, yet the 1026% implied yield on the Yes side indicates extreme underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure.
Analysis
The market has surged 45% over seven days to 32¢, suggesting recent positive developments in AI model performance, yet the 1026% implied yield on the Yes side indicates extreme underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure. With only $729.56 in 24-hour volume against $19.2k open interest and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for a market with 76 days to expiry, creating potential slippage risk for larger positions. The elevated realized volatility (196%) and low vol ratio (0.60) suggest the market may be pricing in significant uncertainty about whether current AI trajectories will breach the 1550 threshold by the deadline.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-26B-1550 yes 100