Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 17% probability of an AI model reaching a 1575 LMSYS leaderboard score by July 1, 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2968% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or genuine skepticism about near-term AI capability jumps.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 17% probability of an AI model reaching a 1575 LMSYS leaderboard score by July 1, 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2968% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or genuine skepticism about near-term AI capability jumps. With 76 days to expiry, the market has experienced notable recent weakness (down from 14¢ to 17¢ over 7 days), thin liquidity at $14.8k open interest, and extremely high realized volatility at 809%, indicating substantial uncertainty about the technical feasibility and timeline. The 1.56 vol ratio and 1.4 info arrivals per hour suggest active debate, though the neutral regime and 6 cliff risk index point to potential for sharp moves if new AI benchmarks or model releases emerge.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-26B-1575 yes 100