Will any AI model have a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely low 3% probability for an AI model reaching a 1675 LMSYS leaderboard score by July 2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure generates a staggering 16,253% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.5% on the No side.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low 3% probability for an AI model reaching a 1675 LMSYS leaderboard score by July 2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure generates a staggering 16,253% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.5% on the No side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a modest $3,305.60 open interest and wide 1¢ spread suggests thin liquidity, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable; notably, the market has drifted upward from 2¢ to 3¢ over seven days despite no recent trading activity, which warrants skepticism about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or stale pricing.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-26B-1675 yes 100