Will any AI model have a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 13% probability implying a 4546% annualized yield for Yes holders, suggesting the market significantly underestimates the likelihood of an AI model reaching a 1750 LMSYS score within 260 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 13% probability implying a 4546% annualized yield for Yes holders, suggesting the market significantly underestimates the likelihood of an AI model reaching a 1750 LMSYS score within 260 days. The zero 24-hour volume and thin $1,508 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 7¢ spread unreliable and creating execution risk despite the apparent opportunity. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ combined with the high cliff risk index of 32 warrants caution, as this could reflect informed selling or reflect the market's genuine skepticism about near-term score improvements on this specific benchmark.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-27-1750 yes 100