What is the current probability for "How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 244.3% and 84.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 49¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Drake will release an album titled "Iceman" exceeding 75 minutes, with the asymmetric implied yields (299% for Yes vs.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 37/54¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $2·OI $1,493.79·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC31-75

7-day price30 snapshots · 2 regime

37¢37¢ current

Apr 832¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 49¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Drake will release an album titled "Iceman" exceeding 75 minutes, with the asymmetric implied yields (299% for Yes vs. 66% for No) suggesting the market is pricing in significant execution risk rather than duration ambiguity. Volume is extremely thin at $9.85 over 24 hours with an 18¢ spread, indicating low liquidity and potential difficulty entering or exiting positions at quoted prices. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this market faces binary announcement risk—the resolution hinges entirely on Drake's release decision and title choice, making the current pricing highly speculative.

Resolution rules

If Drake's album titled 'Iceman' is At least 75 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 244.3%

IY (No) 84.3%

Adj IY 122%

CRI 2

Overround 4.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	244.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	84.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	122%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:21 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC31-75 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →