How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes position offering a staggering 2676% implied yield versus just 7.4% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Yes outcome or minimal conviction from traders.

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25¢
Bid/Ask 15/26¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $358.28·OI $494.55·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC31-85
7-day price14 snapshots · 2 regime
15¢15¢ current
Apr 95¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes position offering a staggering 2676% implied yield versus just 7.4% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Yes outcome or minimal conviction from traders. The $136.27 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no market activity, while the wide 17¢ spread and recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ reflect thin order books and low confidence in current pricing. With 259 days until expiry and a straightforward resolution criterion (85+ minute runtime), this market appears to be a speculative backwater where the extreme yield differential likely reflects both illiquidity premium and genuine uncertainty about whether Drake will release an album with this specific title.

Resolution rules

If Drake's album titled 'Iceman' is At least 85 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 813.1%
IY (No) 25.3%
Adj IY 407%
CRI 6
Overround 4.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)813.1%
IY (No)25.3%
Adj IY407%
CRI6
Overround4.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
11¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:12:29 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC31-85 yes 100

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