Will the President's approval rating be between 41.4 and 41.6 according to RealClearPolitics?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the President's approval rating be between 41.4 and 41.6 according to RealClearPolitics?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This is an extremely tight binary bet with an extraordinarily narrow resolution band (41.4-41.6%), reflected in the astronomical 24,671% implied yield on the Yes side—a red flag indicating the market is pricing near-zero probability for such precision.
Analysis
This is an extremely tight binary bet with an extraordinarily narrow resolution band (41.4-41.6%), reflected in the astronomical 24,671% implied yield on the Yes side—a red flag indicating the market is pricing near-zero probability for such precision. The price has surged 44% over seven days (16¢ to 23¢), suggesting either shifting expectations or reduced confidence in hitting that exact 0.2-point window, though the thin $489.93 daily volume and modest $550.31 open interest raise concerns about liquidity and potential slippage. With only 5 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative tail-risk play where the cliff risk index of 3 reflects the binary nature of missing a narrow target by even 0.1 points.
Resolution rules
If the President's approval rating is between 41.4 and 41.6% at 11:00 AM ET on April 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-41.5 yes 100