Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Taylor Swift, have above 540,522,274 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 25, 2026. 4 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Taylor Swift, have above 540,522,274 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 47597.7% and 1996.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Taylor Swift, have above 540,522,274 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	47597.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1996.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8401%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3234%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.77	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.82	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Taylor Swift, have above 540,522,274 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23, 2026?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions