Is Taylor Swift pregnant?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
220 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Taylor Swift” vs “Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCH-26DEC-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-TAY
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTIFPIARTIST-27FEB28-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXROLLINGSTONECOVER-27-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be Time Person of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTIME-26-TS
Will Taylor Swift be the #2 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCH2-26DEC-TAY
Cluster 2
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-TAY
What moved the line
- Jul 16Taylor Swift↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Taylor Swift↓3pp42→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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