Is Taylor Swift pregnant?
Leader sits at 51% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Taylor Swift
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Taylor Swift
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTIFPIARTIST-27FEB28-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCH-26DEC-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXROLLINGSTONECOVER-27-TAY
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TAY
What moved the line
- Sep 18Taylor Swift↓14pp64→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Taylor Swift↑13pp51→64¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Taylor Swift↓12pp18→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Taylor Swift↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Taylor Swift↑5pp29→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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