Is Taylor Swift pregnant?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 12 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 27%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
8 contracts
Polymarket
27%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
12 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
270 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce be married in 2026?: Before 2027
KXMARRIAGESWIFTKELCE-26
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-TAY
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be Time Person of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTIME-26-TS
Will Taylor Swift be the #2 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCH2-26DEC-TAY
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?
0xc5c6b0…ca03
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTIFPIARTIST-27FEB28-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXROLLINGSTONECOVER-27-TAY
Cluster 2
Taylor Swift pregnant
Cluster 3
Top Spotify Artist 2026: Taylor Swift
Top Spotify Artist 2026: Taylor Swift
0x0afa82…6e10
Cluster 4
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-TAY
What moved the line
- Jun 2Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?↑33pp42→75¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Taylor Swift↑16pp2→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before 2027↓9pp90→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1December 31, 2026↑6pp27→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 30Taylor Swift↓6pp33→27¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in entertainment
- Top US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026yeslast 6% · 8d
- #2 US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026yeslast 3% · 8d
- Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 6 million viewsAt least 12 millionlast 97% · 8d
- Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 1750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking weeklast 82% · 10d
- Drake 'Iceman' First Week Album Sales?: 600k+last 87% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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