SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 28, 2027 · 162d

Is Taylor Swift pregnant?

Leader sits at 51% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

51%

Taylor Swift

runner-up 34¢leader 51¢

Outcomes

5

winner-take-all

Runner-up

34¢

Taylor Swift

Spread

17pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

Feb 28, 2027

162 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayTaylor Swift: 50% (26 days, 22 points)Taylor Swift: 50% on 2026-09-18Taylor Swift: 34% (26 days, 22 points)Taylor Swift: 34% on 2026-09-18Taylor Swift: 6% (26 days, 25 points)Taylor Swift: 6% on 2026-09-18
Taylor Swift50¢Taylor Swift34¢Taylor Swift6¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • Sep 18Taylor Swift14pp6450¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Taylor Swift13pp5164¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Taylor Swift12pp186¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Taylor Swift6pp612¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Taylor Swift5pp2934¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in entertainment

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.