SimpleFunctions
12 source contracts·Kalshi 8 + Polymarket 4·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 28, 2027 · 270d

Is Taylor Swift pregnant?

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 12 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 27%.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

26%

8 contracts

Polymarket

27%

4 contracts

Cross-venue gap

1pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$7K

12 contracts

Closes

Feb 28, 2027

270 days

Open top contract

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 39% (29 days, 29 points)Aggregate: 39% on 2026-06-03
Aggregate of 12 contracts · 29d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 12 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Taylor Swift

8 contracts$6K

Cluster 2

Taylor Swift pregnant

2 contracts$590

Cluster 3

Top Spotify Artist 2026: Taylor Swift

1 contract$145

Cluster 4

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026

1 contract$92

What moved the line

  • Jun 2Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?33pp4275¢ · Polymarket
  • May 27Taylor Swift16pp218¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 1Before 20279pp9081¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 1December 31, 20266pp2733¢ · Polymarket
  • May 30Taylor Swift6pp3327¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in entertainment

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.