Will Robert Cekada be confirmed as ATF Director by Dec 31, 2026?
KXATF-26DEC31-RCEK · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 261 days remaining
Price
Last
98¢
Bid
88¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
10¢
24h Volume
$298
Open Interest
$8,051
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 19.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1024.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 7 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.01 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 506% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
41 indicator snapshots · 19 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 8:39:53 PM
About this market
If Robert Cekada is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be ATF Director between November 19, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXATF-26DEC31-RCEK yes 100