Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?
KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-MMAH · closes Jun 2, 2027 · 415 days remaining
Price
Last
16¢
Bid
15¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$9,195.8
Open Interest
$33,025.89
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 15.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.07 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1295% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 5.07 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 465% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
33 indicator snapshots · 13 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:50:20 PM
About this market
If Matt Mahan advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-MMAH yes 100