Will Steve Hilton receive between 12% and 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02SHIL-14 · closes Jun 2, 2027 · 415 days remaining
Price
Last
1¢
Bid
15¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
8¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$174.17
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 15.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.53 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 116% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
6 indicator snapshots · 10 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 1:34:09 PM
About this market
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 12% to 15.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02SHIL-14 yes 100