Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $685 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $685 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The implied yields are notably high (197% for Yes, 168% for No), suggesting significant uncertainty or mispricing given the 201-day timeframe, though the risk-adjusted yield of 99% indicates these returns may not be as exceptional after accounting for volatility. The sharp 17¢ price movement over seven days (31¢ to 48¢) in a low-liquidity market warrants caution, as small trades can create outsized price swings that don't necessarily reflect fundamental probability shifts.
Resolution rules
If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-DOSB yes 100