Will Bernie Sanders endorse Mary Peltola in the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska before Nov 3, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Bernie Sanders endorse Mary Peltola in the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska before Nov 3, 2026?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The 29¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about a Sanders endorsement, though the extreme 609% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market may be underpricing this outcome given Sanders' history of supporting progressive Democrats in competitive races.
Analysis
The 29¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about a Sanders endorsement, though the extreme 609% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market may be underpricing this outcome given Sanders' history of supporting progressive Democrats in competitive races. With zero 24-hour volume despite $6,724 open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for larger positions. The market has drifted modestly upward from 22¢ over seven days with 201 days to expiration, leaving ample time for campaign dynamics to shift Sanders' calculus on a potential Peltola endorsement.
Resolution rules
If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Mary Peltola in the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-MPEL yes 100