Will legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period become law before Jan 1, 2027?

This market shows extreme asymmetry between Yes and No payoffs, with the Yes position offering a 499% implied yield versus just 39.7% for No, suggesting traders view passage as highly unlikely despite ongoing policy debate around AI chip export controls. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $1,323.99 open interest and a wide 5¢ spread indicates very thin liquidity, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation by small trades. With 259 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 410%, this market has experienced significant historical price swings, though it's remained flat at 22¢ over the past week, suggesting either consensus skepticism about legislative passage or a market awaiting a major catalyst.

Resolution rules

If legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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