Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. Callum Turner's odds have declined 3 cents over the past week to 48¢, suggesting weakening conviction despite a substantial 34.3% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
Callum Turner's odds have declined 3 cents over the past week to 48¢, suggesting weakening conviction despite a substantial 34.3% implied yield on the Yes side. The market shows extreme realized volatility of 421% with a vol ratio of 7.70, indicating outsized price swings relative to information flow (1.7 arrivals per hour), which may reflect low liquidity ($111,665 open interest) and a wide 4¢ spread rather than genuine uncertainty about his candidacy. With nearly 1,400 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a market efficiently pricing casting probabilities.
Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ +34¢)
Resolution rules
If Callum Turner is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBOND-30-CAL yes 100