What is the current probability for "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 2, 2027. 315 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1540.8% and 8.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.

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13¢mid

Bid/Ask 7/19¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Mar 2, 2027·315d remaining

KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T3.0

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 1517.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the near-zero price rather than a genuine opportunity, while the 12¢ spread indicates virtually no market makers are active. With 320 days to expiry and a resolution tied to Q4 2026 Brazilian GDP data (likely released in early 2027), this appears to be an abandoned or newly-listed contract that lacks sufficient trader interest to establish meaningful price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 3.0% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1540.8%

IY (No) 8.7%

Adj IY 770%

CRI 13

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1540.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	770%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:45 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T3.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →