Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $50 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable.

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12¢
Bid/Ask 11/14¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $50·Closes Mar 2, 2027·315d remaining
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T3.5

Analysis

4d ago

This market is severely illiquid with only $50 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 924% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either significant mispricing or that traders view >3.5% YoY GDP growth for Brazil's Q4 2026 as highly unlikely, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias. With 320 days to expiry and a wide 3¢ spread, this contract lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a credible probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 3.5% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 938.3%
IY (No) 14.3%
Adj IY 469%
CRI 8
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)938.3%
IY (No)14.3%
Adj IY469%
CRI8
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:17:44 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T3.5 yes 100

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