Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.90% in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.90% in April 2026?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $4 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly unreliable price signal despite the 94¢ quote suggesting near-certainty of above-3.90% inflation.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $4 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly unreliable price signal despite the 94¢ quote suggesting near-certainty of above-3.90% inflation. The absurdly skewed implied yields—108.5% for Yes versus 26,634% for No—reflect the microscopic liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment, and the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates substantial resolution uncertainty. With just 21 days to expiry and minimal trading activity, this contract is effectively illiquid and should be treated as uninformative for serious prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.90% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILINF-26APR-T3.90 yes 100