Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing October 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $4,108 open interest, suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin bid-ask spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $4,108 open interest, suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin bid-ask spread. The astronomical 6917.8% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine conviction that Bolsonaro's ballot eligibility is highly unlikely given Brazil's electoral laws and his current ineligibility status. With 171 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the approaching resolution date combined with low liquidity creates meaningful execution risk for any position-taker.
Resolution rules
If Jair Bolsonaro is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRBALLOT-26-JB yes 100