Will the brent crude oil close price be above $104.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $104.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 37¢ to 44¢ (a recovery from 23¢ lows), suggesting significant uncertainty around Brent crude's trajectory to $105/bbl in 14 months.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 37¢ to 44¢ (a recovery from 23¢ lows), suggesting significant uncertainty around Brent crude's trajectory to $105/bbl in 14 months. The extreme implied yield of 8857% on the Yes side combined with thin liquidity ($537 daily volume, $5.2k open interest) and a wide 12¢ spread indicates this is a low-conviction, illiquid market where prices may not reflect fundamental probabilities. With a realized volatility of 1224% and high info arrival rate (2.3/hour), this contract appears to be pricing in substantial tail risk around oil price movements rather than a balanced assessment of whether Brent will exceed $105 by April 2026.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 104.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T104.99 yes 100