Will the brent crude oil close price be above $108.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $108.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract plummeting 40% over seven days (30¢ to 18¢), suggesting traders have sharply reduced their conviction that Brent will exceed $108.99 by April 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract plummeting 40% over seven days (30¢ to 18¢), suggesting traders have sharply reduced their conviction that Brent will exceed $108.99 by April 2026. The astronomical 14,638% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal liquidity ($352.83 daily volume, $2,991.75 open interest) and a wide 30¢ spread indicates this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where the 33% probability may not reflect true consensus. With only 11 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 3,979%, this contract carries substantial cliff risk and appears to be a speculative tail bet rather than a reliable price discovery mechanism.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 108.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T108.99 yes 100