What is the current probability for "Will the brent crude oil close price be above $110.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 25¢ (25% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the brent crude oil close price be above $110.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 24813.4% and 657.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the brent crude oil close price be above $110.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $110.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,917% implied yield on the Yes side despite only a 21% probability, suggesting severe illiquidity ($4,088 open interest, $294 daily volume) is distorting prices rather than reflecting genuine market expectations.

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25¢

Bid/Ask 14/25¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $269.36·OI $5,880.43·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T110.99

7-day price604 snapshots · 29 regime

51¢14¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,917% implied yield on the Yes side despite only a 21% probability, suggesting severe illiquidity ($4,088 open interest, $294 daily volume) is distorting prices rather than reflecting genuine market expectations. The sharp 7-day decline from 26¢ to 17¢ combined with 862% realized volatility and a high cliff risk index (5) indicates this contract is experiencing erratic price action typical of thin, low-liquidity venues. With 14 days to expiry and Brent currently trading around $80-85/barrel, the $110.99 strike requires a ~30% rally in two weeks, making the 21% probability potentially reasonable on fundamentals, but the extreme yield spread suggests informed traders should be cautious about the resolution mechanics and potential for unexpected volatility near expiry.

Resolution rules

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 110.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 24813.4%

IY (No) 657.6%

Adj IY 24813%

CRI 6

RV 3778%

VR 2.60

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	24813.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	657.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	24813%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3778%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.60	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	36.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	6.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:34 PM

SF edge 40.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (2)

NO +40¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +37¢thesis — Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T110.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →