Will the brent crude oil close price be above $114.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $114.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract collapsing 77% over seven days (from 22¢ to 9¢), suggesting strong conviction that Brent will close at or below $114.99 despite the 35% current price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract collapsing 77% over seven days (from 22¢ to 9¢), suggesting strong conviction that Brent will close at or below $114.99 despite the 35% current price. The astronomical implied yield of 33,284% on the Yes side and realized volatility of 69,229% indicate severe mispricing or technical dysfunction, compounded by thin liquidity ($482.64 daily volume) and a wide 20¢ spread that makes execution difficult. With only 11 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 10, this contract appears to be experiencing either a structural breakdown in pricing or reflects genuine market certainty that current crude fundamentals don't support prices above $115/barrel by late April 2026.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 114.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T114.99 yes 100