What is the current probability for "Will the brent crude oil close price be above $116.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the brent crude oil close price be above $116.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 76748.6% and 212.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the brent crude oil close price be above $116.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $116.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme distress signals with the Yes contract trading at just 3¢ after collapsing 22¢ over seven days, implying only a 14% probability that Brent crude closes above $116.99 in 12 days.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 5/20¢·Spread 15¢·Vol $223.05·OI $4,088.4·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T116.99

7-day price310 snapshots · 8 regime

37¢5¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits extreme distress signals with the Yes contract trading at just 3¢ after collapsing 22¢ over seven days, implying only a 14% probability that Brent crude closes above $116.99 in 12 days. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 32 Cliff Risk Index and thin $582 daily volume suggests either severe mispricing or a technical breakdown, though the $3,821 open interest indicates some conviction behind the bearish positioning. With Brent currently trading around $80-85/barrel, the market is pricing in less than a 1-in-7 chance of a $30+ rally in just over a week, which warrants scrutiny on whether this reflects genuine market consensus or liquidity constraints on a niche expiry.

Resolution rules

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 116.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 76748.6%

IY (No) 212.6%

Adj IY 76749%

CRI 19

RV 4159%

VR 1.76

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	76748.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	212.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	76749%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4159%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.76	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	36.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	6.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

15¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:23 PM

SF edge 29.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (2)

NO +29¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +38¢thesis — Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T116.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →