Will the brent crude oil close price be above $94.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $94.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme annualized yields (2,437% for Yes, 2,860% for No) driven by its 14-day expiration window, with realized volatility at 435% suggesting substantial price swings are expected in crude oil over this period.
Analysis
This market displays extreme annualized yields (2,437% for Yes, 2,860% for No) driven by its 14-day expiration window, with realized volatility at 435% suggesting substantial price swings are expected in crude oil over this period. The 54¢ price implies roughly even odds that Brent will exceed $94.99/barrel by late April 2026, though the modest $5,094 open interest and $2,297 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify slippage on larger positions. The flat 7-day price action (holding at 52¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 1 suggests the market is pricing in significant uncertainty right up to expiration, with information arriving at 2.0 events per hour keeping traders actively reassessing the probability.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 94.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T94.99 yes 100