Will the brent crude oil close price be above $96.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $96.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a 52% probability that Brent crude will exceed $96.99/bbl by April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (2972% for Yes, 2337% for No) signal severe illiquidity with only $2,779.83 in open interest and $882.41 in 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 52% probability that Brent crude will exceed $96.99/bbl by April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (2972% for Yes, 2337% for No) signal severe illiquidity with only $2,779.83 in open interest and $882.41 in 24-hour volume. The realized volatility of 657% and cliff risk index of 1 indicate extreme price sensitivity near expiration, though the minimal 7-day price drift (49¢ to 48¢) and tight 2¢ spread suggest the market has stabilized around fair value despite the thin liquidity conditions.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 96.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T96.99 yes 100