What is the current probability for "Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 24, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 14694.0% and 9836.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This Bitcoin price market shows extreme yield anomalies with the No side offering 7995.5% annualized return versus 5801.9% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on a $13.5K open interest contract closing in just 5 days.

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46¢

Bid/Ask 50/53¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $27,020.03·OI $28,999.87·Closes Apr 24, 2026·3d remaining

KXBTCD-26APR2417-T75499.99

7-day price588 snapshots · 64 regime

72¢44¢ current

Apr 1732¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This Bitcoin price market shows extreme yield anomalies with the No side offering 7995.5% annualized return versus 5801.9% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on a $13.5K open interest contract closing in just 5 days. The price has collapsed 14 cents (from 65¢ to 51¢) over the past week despite neutral regime conditions, while the 634% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 1 indicate acute uncertainty around the $75,500 strike with minimal room for price discovery. With only $10.5K in 24-hour volume and a 3¢ spread, this illiquid market appears to be pricing in significant tail risk rather than fundamental Bitcoin direction.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 75499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14694.0%

IY (No) 9836.5%

Adj IY 14042%

CRI 1

RV 846%

VR 0.78

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	14694.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9836.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	14042%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	846%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.78	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	20.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:00:37 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCD-26APR2417-T75499.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →