Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 12% probability pricing appears deeply mispriced given Bitcoin's current trajectory and the 259-day timeframe—the contract requires BTC to stay above $140k for an entire year starting January 2026, yet the implied yield of 1139% on the Yes side suggests extreme undervaluation relative to historical volatility of 682%.
Analysis
The 12% probability pricing appears deeply mispriced given Bitcoin's current trajectory and the 259-day timeframe—the contract requires BTC to stay above $140k for an entire year starting January 2026, yet the implied yield of 1139% on the Yes side suggests extreme undervaluation relative to historical volatility of 682%. The extremely thin 24-hour volume of $2,529 against $63k open interest indicates severe liquidity constraints that likely explain the pricing disconnect, making this a high-risk/high-reward opportunity for sophisticated traders willing to accept the 8/10 cliff risk score and potential execution challenges on Kalshi.
Resolution rules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $139999.99 starting 01/01/2026 12:00 AM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-139999.99 yes 100