What is the current probability for "Who will win the CA-11 House election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 44¢ (44% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the CA-11 House election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 97.6% and 43.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the CA-11 House election?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the CA-11 House election?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Who will win the CA-11 House election?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes contract offering a 275% implied yield versus just 15% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Chakrabarti's chances at the current 25¢ level.

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44¢

Bid/Ask 40/45¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $76.54·OI $1,464.19·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXCA11PERSON-26-SCHA

7-day price30 snapshots · 9 regime

43¢40¢ current

Apr 141¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes contract offering a 275% implied yield versus just 15% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Chakrabarti's chances at the current 25¢ level. The dramatic 7-day price surge from 1¢ to 19¢ (with current settlement at 25¢) indicates recent positive news or shifting sentiment, though the thin liquidity ($364 open interest, $209 daily volume) and wide 5¢ spread warrant caution on execution. With 566 days until the November 2027 close and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if you believe the recent momentum reflects genuine candidate viability rather than speculative noise.

Resolution rules

If Saikat Chakrabarti wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 97.6%

IY (No) 43.4%

Adj IY 49%

CRI 2

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	97.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	43.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	49%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:31:03 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXCA11PERSON-26-SCHA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →