Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $305 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $305 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The 580.8% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and suggests either significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about Melissa Hernandez's prospects in CA-14, though the recent sharp price decline from 10¢ to 3¢ over seven days indicates recent bearish sentiment that has partially recovered. With 566 days until expiration and a high cliff risk index of 9, this market carries substantial execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Melissa Hernandez wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA14SWINNER-26-MHER yes 100