Will Tom Steyer finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Tom Steyer finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. Tom Steyer's primary odds have surged dramatically from 20¢ to 56¢ over seven days, suggesting significant new information or shifting market sentiment, though the 56% probability still reflects substantial uncertainty about his viability.
Analysis
Tom Steyer's primary odds have surged dramatically from 20¢ to 56¢ over seven days, suggesting significant new information or shifting market sentiment, though the 56% probability still reflects substantial uncertainty about his viability. The extreme realized volatility of 280% and notably asymmetric implied yields (113% on No vs. 70% on Yes) indicate the market is pricing in considerable tail risk, possibly reflecting concerns about whether Steyer can actually compete effectively despite recent momentum. With only $2,419.67 in 24-hour volume against $17,450.25 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, which could amplify price swings if significant new developments emerge before the June 2027 expiration.
Resolution rules
If Tom Steyer finishes in 1st place in the 2026 California Governor primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26JUN02-1ST-TSTE yes 100