California Governor Primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$68K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
326 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Xavier Becerra finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that California's gubernatorial primary will occur as scheduled. The 97% level indicates high confidence in the event taking place, with minimal uncertainty priced in. Primary elections in California are constitutionally mandated and typically proceed as planned unless extraordinary circumstances—such as a sitting governor's death or incapacity—create legal complications requiring gubernatorial succession procedures. The main factors supporting this high probability are the established primary date, normal political operations, and historical precedent. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty would be the official conduct of the primary election on the scheduled date. Any changes to state law, health crises affecting leadership, or constitutional challenges could shift expectations downward, though these scenarios remain unlikely given current conditions.
- ›California's primary election is constitutionally mandated and has a fixed statutory date; no legal mechanism currently allows postponement without extraordinary circumstances
- ›The sitting governor's office status and ability to discharge duties remains stable; succession or incapacity events would be the primary mechanism altering primary procedures
- ›Historical data shows California has conducted primaries as scheduled across multiple election cycles without cancellation or major postponement
- ›The current political calendar and candidate filing deadlines are proceeding normally with no announced legal challenges to the primary process
- ›State legislative capacity to modify election law or procedures remains finite; any changes would require coordination and face timing constraints
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In california governor
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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