Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,377 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,377 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making. The extreme implied yield of 16,050% on the Yes side signals either a pricing anomaly or genuine market skepticism about a BoC rate cut in June 2026, though the recent price movement from 3¢ to 4¢ suggests modest accumulation of bearish positions. With 55 days to expiry and a wide 4¢ spread, traders should be cautious about execution costs and consider that this thin market may not reflect true consensus probability.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of 25bps at its Jun 10, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUN-C25 yes 100