Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing May 28, 2026. The market is pricing in a very high 91% probability of rate maintenance at the May BoK meeting, with a wide 5¢ spread and minimal 24-hour volume suggesting thin liquidity despite $1,081.80 in open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a very high 91% probability of rate maintenance at the May BoK meeting, with a wide 5¢ spread and minimal 24-hour volume suggesting thin liquidity despite $1,081.80 in open interest. The extreme 5,963% implied yield on the "No" outcome reflects the long-tail risk premium typical of low-probability events, while the 131% realized volatility and 7-point cliff risk index indicate this contract has experienced notable price swings—evidenced by the 6¢ move from 80¢ to 86¢ over seven days. With 41 days to expiration and only 1.2 information arrivals per hour, traders should monitor BoK communications closely as the May meeting approaches.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Korea takes the action of Maintain current rate at May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26MAY27-HOLD yes 100