Will the Bank of Russia Cut 25bps at the April Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will the Bank of Russia Cut 25bps at the April Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. The market is pricing in a 74% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the April meeting, with the price rising 5¢ over the past week, suggesting growing conviction in this outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 74% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the April meeting, with the price rising 5¢ over the past week, suggesting growing conviction in this outcome. However, the zero 24-hour volume combined with a wide 7¢ spread and modest $980.97 open interest indicates severe illiquidity that makes the price potentially unreliable. The extreme implied yields (2334% for Yes, 10541% for No) are artifacts of the thin liquidity rather than genuine market signals, and with only 7 days to expiry, any late-breaking economic data could trigger sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut 25bps at the April Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26APR24-C25 yes 100