Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 305% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 305% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The recent price movement from 12¢ to 15¢ over seven days indicates some accumulation of bullish positions, though the $924 open interest remains minimal and the 1¢ spread is relatively tight for such low activity. With 678 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 6, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market, making the outsized yield potentially misleading given the illiquidity constraints.
Resolution rules
If Mike Quigley wins the 2027 Chicago mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-MQUI yes 100