Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election
Leader sits at 58% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alexi Giannoulias
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Susana Mendoza
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$868
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 23, 2028
548 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Brandon Johnson
KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-BJOH
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Matt Brewer
KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-MBRE
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Alexi Giannoulias
KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-AGIA
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Susana Mendoza
KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-SMEN
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: John Kitover
KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-JKIT
Analysis
The 53% probability indicates that market participants currently view the leader as having a slight majority chance of winning Chicago's 2027 mayoral election, with the runner-up at 15% and remaining candidates sharing the balance. This level reflects relatively limited trading volume across four contracts, suggesting modest market confidence rather than consensus. The probability would likely shift based on changes in polling data, endorsements from major political figures, or shifts in campaign fundraising. The primary catalyst for uncertainty resolution will be the election itself in 2027, though interim developments—such as early primary results, candidate withdrawals, or major policy announcements—could meaningfully move prices before then. Current trading volume of approximately $125,447 in the 24-hour window suggests moderate but not intense market interest in this outcome.
- ›Current leader holds 53% probability with only 15% for runner-up, indicating meaningful but not overwhelming market conviction
- ›Four-contract market structure with limited 24-hour volume suggests relatively low liquidity and potential for sharp repricing on new information
- ›No near-term scheduled events specified; major catalysts likely include campaign announcements, polling data releases, and primary election dynamics over the next 18+ months
- ›Market is pricing this roughly 18+ months before the election occurs, creating substantial time for candidate positioning, coalition-building, and political developments to shift expectations
- ›Price reflects early-stage speculation with incomplete information about final candidate field and campaign dynamics
What moved the line
- Aug 23Alexi Giannoulias↓5pp65→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Matt Brewer↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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